Trump’s midterm defeat may push him toward bolder moves abroad
Analysts say reduced power at home may lead the president to act more forcefully overseas, particularly on Iran and Ukraine.
Key points
- Democrats won a large majority of voters, costing Trump control of both houses of Congress.
- As commander-in-chief, Trump keeps broad powers to use the US military abroad.
- Tensions with Iran rose before the midterms, including a small-scale US air strike on an Iranian island.
- Ukraine war talks and sanctions policy could also shift as Trump responds to the result.
According to BBC News, Donald Trump has taken a heavy blow in the US midterm elections. Voters gave a large majority to his opponents, and the result has cost him control of both chambers of Congress. BBC analysis suggests this will restrict what he can do at home.
Foreign affairs may look very different. As president and commander-in-chief, Trump still has wide authority to order the American armed forces into action. Commentators warn that a leader who hates being labelled a loser may look for visible wins overseas to cover the electoral setback.
Read also: Iran’s negotiator says Americans rejected war in midterms
Escalating tensions with Iran
Before the vote, American troop movements and blunt remarks from Trump had fuelled speculation that Washington was preparing to resume fighting with Tehran. Shortly before polling day, US forces hit an island belonging to Iran in the Gulf with a small-scale air strike.
Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat, attended a classified briefing on possible military options against Iran. Before a stroke put him in hospital, he described the proposals as mad and cautioned that they might spark a severe escalation. Reports have also suggested that planners are weighing strikes on civilian infrastructure, an action BBC analysis says would probably count as a war crime.
Such strikes could prompt Iranian retaliation against similar sites in Gulf states allied to the US. The United Arab Emirates is listed as a possible first target, a country that sits about equally far from Israel and the United States. Iran’s leadership is following the American debate closely. It has made little effort to hide its pleasure that the fallout from its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become a political problem for Trump at home.
Warnings from Tehran and Israel
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, posted a message online. He said Americans had rejected war out of conscience and concern over living costs, and that Iran backed that position. He added that if Washington ignored the will of its people, it would discover that Iran’s refusal brings a nightmare.
Benjamin Netanyahu is currently acting prime minister of Israel following last week’s election and is working to assemble a new government. He has again said he wants to topple the Islamic government in Tehran. Reports in both countries claim he is urging Trump to return to fighting. His outgoing coalition lacks enough seats to govern, yet analysts say a prolonged war with direct fire on Israeli territory could open routes to a unity government he would shape.
Ukraine and Russia
According to the BBC, the fighting between Ukraine and Russia has already outlasted the First World War. Before the vote, Trump removed penalties on Moscow so that Russian diesel could be purchased. Analysts think he could extend this easing to reduce price pressure on American households.
Civilians in Ukraine face deadly risk from Russian ballistic missiles, which are reaching their targets more often. Kyiv has asked Washington for additional US-manufactured interceptors. European partners are paying for some of them, but the BBC reports that the response has fallen short of what Ukraine needs. The Kremlin spokesman said Moscow hopes the midterm results will not disturb what it describes as Trump’s peace efforts.
Trump has consistently pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up land to Russia in a deal that critics see as surrender for Kyiv. Analysts say his electoral setback could make him push harder, though BBC analysis cautions that forecasts of his next steps may prove wrong.
The BBC analysis concludes that Trump is unlikely to step back. He has long enjoyed using power and may seek to show that, if he has lost ground at home, he can still exert influence globally.
Related: Russian strikes kill dozens in Ukraine, including at an aid centre
Frequently asked questions
What did the US midterm elections change for Trump?
According to BBC News, Trump lost control of both chambers of Congress, which restricts his power to act at home. He still keeps broad authority as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Why could tensions with Iran rise after the midterms?
A small-scale American air strike hit an Iranian island the day before the vote. Talk of renewed fighting with Iran had grown in the weeks before the election.
How could the Ukraine war be affected?
Trump earlier eased penalties on Moscow so Russian diesel could be purchased, and he has pressed Ukraineu0026#039;s president to accept territorial concessions. Analysts say he may increase that pressure.
Sources
This article was written with the help of AI from reports by the outlets listed above. See our Editorial Policy. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
